Jobs to Be Done: NFL Head Coach Searches and Hiring the Right People

Black Monday and the ensuing days every January turn the NFL into a live-action case study in hiring: urgency, pressure from stakeholders, and a limited talent market where “brand-name” candidates can crowd out “right-fit” candidates. Sure, the playoffs on the field are entertaining, but the off-field pursuit of the right coach is both high theater and a master class in how to hire—or how not to hire—for any business out there.

When we woke up on January 15, 2026, there were nine  NFL head coaching openings: Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders. Every one of these teams has the opportunity to alter its fortunes, right the ship, change the culture…you can pick your overused sports-talk phrase. But how can they make sure they actually make the right choice?

If you’re a team owner, president or GM, do you hire the coach you think you need, or the coach your organization is actually trying to “hire” to do a very specific job? How do you make that decision so you can, in turn, make the decision on who will lead your team? The lens we’re looking through is one that applies to hiring for any role, in any market, and it’s one that sets the organization doing the hiring on the path to success for the actual future they’re facing.

Looking through the lens of Harvard Business School professor and acclaimed author Clayton Christensen’s The Innovator’s Dilemma and other works, including the renowned “Jobs to Be Done” theory, they will come to an innovative solution only if they define and understand what they are hiring this head coach to actually do. That lens is the cleanest way to avoid the classic NFL version of the Innovator’s Dilemma: over-optimizing for what worked yesterday while the league (and your locker room) has already moved on.

The Strategic Risk of the "Safe" Hire

In the high-stakes arena of the NFL, as in the corporate world, the greatest risk to an organization is often the comfort of the status quo. Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma suggests that successful entities frequently fail because they focus on "sustaining innovations"—perfecting what worked yesterday—while ignoring the disruptive shifts that redefine the future.

When a franchise hires a coach based purely on a traditional, "safe" pedigree, they often find themselves managing a scheme that the rest of the league has already solved. True competitive advantage comes from identifying the disruptive leader who isn't just maintaining a legacy but is actively pivoting to meet the next tactical or analytical evolution of the game.

RELATED: BUSINESS AND TEAM BUILDING LESSONS FROM THE NFL

Hiring for Outcomes: The "Right Fit" Philosophy

To secure this advantage, a front office must look past the resume and apply the Jobs to Be Done (JTBD) theory. This framework posits that we do not simply “hire” people, but rather we hire them to solve a specific problem or facilitate a specific type of organizational progress.

In an NFL coaching search, this means moving beyond the search for a generic "winner" and defining the precise “job” at hand: Is it to develop a franchise quarterback, overhaul a stagnant culture, or implement a data-driven game-day strategy? By focusing on the functional “job” rather than the candidate's title, teams can ensure a strategic alignment that delivers long-term ROI, ensuring they don't just find a talented individual but the right person for their unique mission.

Jobs to Be Done: What Are You Really Hiring a Head Coach to Do?

NFL executives, take note here. Before you fall in love with a playbook or a résumé or a locker-room personality, define the “job” your next coach must accomplish in the next 18–36 months.

1) The Rebuild Coach (SMB/Startup phase)

Job: Stabilize culture, develop talent fast, build a staff, install fundamentals, and create belief—often without immediate wins.

Traits to Prioritize

• Culture-building credibility (players and staff actually follow them)
• Talent development mindset (especially QB + trenches)
• High adaptability (weekly reinvention)
• Comfort with ambiguity and roster churn
• Emotional steadiness and resilience

Soft Skills That Matter Most

• Communication clarity (simple, repeatable, consistent)
• Conflict management (young locker rooms test boundaries)
• Teaching ability (turning complexity into habits)
• Ownership/GM alignment (no power struggles)

2) The Scale-Up Coach (mid-market growth)

Job: Professionalize the operation—turn flashes into consistency, reduce self-inflicted errors, and build a system that survives injuries and turnover.

Traits to prioritize

• Process obsession (situational football, game management)
• Delegation + staff development (coordinators grow under them)
• Cross-functional collaboration with the front office
• Player accountability without losing the locker room

Soft Skills That Matter Most

• Structured decision-making
• Hiring and coaching the coaches
• Feedback culture (film room truth without toxicity)
• Managing up (owners), down (players), and across (GM)

3) The Enterprise Coach (contender/legacy organization)

Job: Win the margins—staff excellence, elite game management, playoff adaptability, and stakeholder leadership under nonstop scrutiny.

Traits to Prioritize

• CEO-level leadership (not just coordinator brilliance)
• Ability to manage stars and high expectations
• Elite situational mastery (clock, challenges, 4th down, end-of-half)
• Playoff adaptability (counterpunching, not clinging)

Soft Skills That Matter Most

• Media and message discipline
• Political intelligence (without dysfunction)
• High-trust leadership with veteran leaders
• Calm under existential pressure

The Innovator’s Dilemma in the NFL: “Hiring for the Last War”

Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma shows how successful incumbents can get trapped—doubling down on what historically worked, even as the environment shifts. There are a number of NFL hiring equivalents that decision makers should be paying attention to right now, including:

• Chasing the latest offensive trend without checking fit
• Overvaluing “proven coordinators” and undervaluing head-coach skills
• Hiring a “name” to satisfy optics instead of solving the real organizational constraint
• Treating leadership as secondary to scheme

Falling into those traps is how teams end up with seemingly impressive résumés but ultimately disappointing tenures.

What Teams Should Look For (And What to Avoid)

What to Look For

1) “Program builders,” not just play-callers
Can they build a staff? Develop leaders? Create a culture that survives losses?

2) A quarterback plan with evidence
Not just “I’ll adapt.” Ask for how, with examples.

3) Decision-making under pressure
Game management is a skill—treat it like one.

4) Fit with the organization’s “stage”
A rebuild job and a contender job are different professions.

What to Avoid

1) The “hero hire”
When the franchise believes one person will fix everything, it usually signals unclear accountability.

2) Mismatched environment
Some coaches thrive in structured organizations and struggle in chaotic ones—and vice versa.

3) Power struggles
If the coach and GM aren’t aligned on roster-building and authority, you’re buying instability.

4) Confusing charisma for leadership
A strong press conference isn’t a leadership operating system.

As Franchises “Scale,” What Changes in the Skill Set?

Not every NFL team looking for a new head coach has the same problems to fix, and thus they do not have the same jobs to be done. Similarly, as teams evolve over time and reach different stages, they will have different needs in a coach. Just like a company in any industry, an NFL team evolves from doing to leading a system.

Early stage (rebuild)

• Coach is a hands-on builder
• High direct involvement in teaching and identity
• Winning the locker room is priority #1

Growth stage (retool/scale-up)

• Coach becomes an operator
• Processes, delegation, and consistency become the edge
• Fewer “new ideas,” more “repeatable excellence”

Enterprise stage (contender)

• Coach becomes a CEO
• Managing elite talent, high visibility, and postseason adaptation
• Your competitive advantage is staff, decision-making, and trust

Throughout this process, it’s important to remember that the right hire is only a step in the longer journey. The real value is realized in how that talent is developed and scaled. Whether you are building a championship roster or a high-performing technical team, the roadmap for growth remains strikingly similar.

Again, by applying Clayton Christensen’s principles you can transform a coaching search into a long-term talent strategy. Here is how a forward-thinking organization moves from a successful hire to a sustainable powerhouse:

Phase 1: Establishing the Foundation (The First 90 Days)

The initial three months are not about winning games—they are about installing a Leadership Operating System. In any industry, a new leader must first clarify the “job” they were hired to perform. For a head coach, this means establishing a clear communication cadence and an accountability loop that leaves no room for ambiguity.

By formalizing a Player Leadership Council, the coach builds an internal feedback mechanism similar to a corporate “voice of the employee” initiative. Simultaneously, conducting a Situational Audit—focusing on critical areas like 2-minute drills and red-zone efficiency—allows the leader to fix the “leaks” in the current process before trying to innovate. You cannot disrupt an industry (or a league) until you have mastered the foundational standards.

Phase 2: Professionalizing the Operation (Months 4–12)

As the honeymoon phase fades, the focus must shift to Delegation Design. One of the core traps of the Innovator’s Dilemma is the tendency for leaders to over-manage familiar tasks rather than evolving. A head coach must clearly define what they “own” versus what is delegated to coordinators, much like a CXO must empower their department heads to drive results.

During this stage, the organization invests in Professional Development. This includes dedicated game-management training—using data analysts to rehearse scenarios weekly—and building a Staff Development Pipeline. At ECLARO we’ve seen that the strongest organizations are those that prioritize mentoring and performance feedback for the entire “bench,” ensuring the assistants are growing alongside the principal leader.

Phase 3: Scaling for Sustainability (Year 2 and Beyond)

True success is measured by what happens when your best people are eventually headhunted. Sustainable organizations avoid the “Dilemma” of stagnation by prioritizing Succession Planning. By identifying “ready-now” internal candidates for key roles, a team ensures that the departure of a top coordinator doesn’t result in a total collapse of the system.

This final phase is about Innovation Without Chaos. It involves piloting tactical changes in controlled “slices” rather than wholesale changes that disrupt the culture. Programs focused on Adaptability, such as weekly “counterpunch” installs to address specific opponent strategies, ensure the team remains a disruptor.

The bottom line is simple. If you cannot develop your staff, you cannot sustain success. This is a universal truth finding leaders and building teams. Whether on the sidelines or in the boardroom, the goal is to build a talent ecosystem that is resilient, scalable and perpetually ready for the next challenge.

Who Is Going to Win, and Why

The teams that win coaching cycles don’t “win” the press conference. They don’t win the talk-radio war. They define the job to be done, hire for stage-fit, and invest in the leadership system that scales.

Right now, more than 25% of NFL franchises are staring at the same entrepreneurial decision in different uniforms. The ones that get it right will treat their head coach hiring like what it is: the most important leadership hire in the building. 

ECLARO Point After

How well can applying Clayton Christensen’s principals and the Jobs to Be Done (JTBD) philosophy determine which coaches should land where? Before anyone has officially signed anywhere, here's a predictive look (and if any of the NFL teams use this in their hiring process, you're welcome):

Baltimore Ravens: Klint Kubiak

JTBD: “Keep a contender stable while modernizing/optimizing the offense around an elite QB.”
Kubiak is being discussed as an early favorite and fits the offense-forward, maximize-the-QB mandate that contender teams often need when the baseline is already high.

New York Giants: John Harbaugh

JTBD: “Rebuild the operating system: culture, accountability, and week-to-week professionalism—while stabilizing a young QB environment.”
The Giants are aggressively pursuing Harbaugh, and his profile is the classic CEO/culture installer for a franchise trying to reset standards fast.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Kevin Stefanski

JTBD: “Preserve the franchise floor while upgrading the offensive ceiling and quarterback functionality.”
With Mike Tomlin stepping down, Pittsburgh needs an enterprise operator who can run a full program and bring repeatable offense/QB structure—Stefanski fits that better than almost anyone available after Cleveland fired him.

Cleveland Browns: Mike McDaniel

JTBD: “Build a functional offense under constraints (QB uncertainty, pressure to win now) without blowing up the roster.”
Cleveland fired Stefanski and still needs an identity on offense; McDaniel’s edge is designing answers in modern offensive football—exactly the kind of “create efficiency” job this roster needs.

Atlanta Falcons: Brian Flores

JTBD: “Reset the culture to tough, disciplined, and consistent—then build a staff that can scale.”
Atlanta moved on from Raheem Morris and is hunting a leader who can raise the floor quickly and bring accountability. Flores is the clearest “culture + standards” bet among widely discussed candidates.

Miami Dolphins: Chris Shula

JTBD: “Stabilize the building during organizational change and rebuild trust/physical identity—without creating a three-year rebuild.”
Miami fired Mike McDaniel and is in broader transition; Shula is being pegged as a top target (and the symbolic/brand fit in Miami is obvious), but the real JTBD fit is culture + player development + staff building.

Arizona Cardinals: Joe Brady

JTBD: “Create a clear QB plan and offensive identity while the roster (and possibly QB) transitions.”
Arizona fired Jonathan Gannon after a 3–14 season and sits near the top of the draft order—this is the moment for an offense-first ‘QB program’ head coach.

Tennessee Titans: Brian Daboll

JTBD: “Develop the No. 1 overall rookie QB immediately and build a functional offense fast.”
The Titans drafted Cam Ward No. 1 overall and are interviewing Daboll; his clearest value is quarterback development + offensive construction, which is exactly the Titans’ job-to-be-done.

Las Vegas Raiders: Matt Nagy

JTBD: “Use the No. 1 overall pick to get the QB decision right and build a scalable offense that can grow with a young roster.”
The Raiders clinched the No. 1 pick—that makes this a QB-centric hire. Nagy is an offense/QB-structure head coach with prior HC experience, which matters when you’re building from the studs.

LET'S TALK ABOUT YOUR COMPANY'S JOBS TO BE DONE AND HOW ECLARO CAN HELP YOU BUILD A WINNING TEAM.