January 26, 2026
The Future of Hiring: A New Canary, New Competition, New “Job” We Do for Clients
The future of workforce strategy rarely arrives with a press release. It slips in quietly, first surfacing in quiet corners of the labor market, then everywhere. That’s why the Stanford Digital Economy Lab / SIEPR working paper “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence” matters, and matters for your business, right now.
“It’s one of the first large-scale, data-backed signals that generative AI is already reshaping employment,” notes ECLARO Co-Founder Paul Sheridan, “and that the earliest impact is showing up disproportionately in entry-level workers in the most AI-exposed occupations.
“At ECLARO, we see this as a persistent trend to plan for, not a one-off disruption to react to,” he continues. “As we look 5 to 10 years out, we’re looking at three lenses that will help organizations forecast staffing needs with clarity: Clayton Christensen's Jobs to Be Done (JTBD), Basis of Competition and the Jevons Paradox. Put together, they map a compelling view of what staffing and talent operations will look like 5 to 10 years from now.”
Of course, the time to start preparing is right now, for both businesses and the partners they’ll turn to in making future-ready talent plans a reality.
“The job of a staffing partner is evolving from simply connecting talent to outcomes,” adds ECLARO Co-Founder Tom Sheridan. “Proof of capability, not just a resume, is what clients will rely on to de-risk hiring in a high-velocity market.
“True talent acquisition experts, those who take the time to understand the client, the role and the jobs to be done related to that role—and who can then source and recruit the Right People—will be the partners who will not only lend value but will truly help organizations evolve based on the people they hire.”
So, how will tomorrow’s top talent be found? The future of staffing can be framed around five durable shifts:
The Résumé Gets Cheaper, the Proof Gets Expensive
As we talked about in “The AI Dilemma: How to Evaluate Talent When Every Résumé Is Perfect,” AI will continue to accelerate sourcing, résumé formatting and outreach. That won’t automatically create trust. The winning firms will compete on evidence like the below:
- Work samples and practical assessments
- Skills verification tied to real job tasks
- Reference integrity and employment validation
- Role-relevant simulations (not generic tests)
In short, the question shifts from “who looks right” to “who can do the work on day one.”
What This Means for ECLARO Clients: “It’s time to invest in capability evidence rather than just candidate pools,” Paul Sheridan offers. “Our approach emphasizes task-based validation, simulated work and continuous learning checkpoints that mirror real job demands.”
“Time-to-Fill” Becomes “Time-to-Impact”
With AI having a profound impact on the speed with which candidates can be found, the age-old
“time-to-hire” metric is giving way to one that’s more about ramp speed, early performance and the efficiency of manager time spent onboarding and coaching.
A manager’s time is their most expensive resource. If a new hire needs constant hand-holding to get up to speed or struggle with your tech stack, for example, it’s a net loss. “Time-to-Impact” elevates staffing from a recruiting function to a true talent operations partner.
What This Means for ECLARO Clients: “A bespoke approach like ECLARO’s means an ability to focus on speed-to-competence and the impact a hire has at the team level,” says Tom Sheridan. “The goal is to find people who can contribute on day one and shorten the path from candidate to contributor, while strictly preserving the quality and compliance that de-risks the entire process for our clients.”
RELATED: ECLARO'S ULTIMATE GUIDE TO OUTSOURCING AND OFFSHORING IN THE PHILIPPINES
Entry-Level Staffing Changes Shape the Workforce
Longtime professionals and early career individuals alike continue to observe and analyze the impact of AI on the workforce, seeking signs of AI’s impending impact. If you’re looking for that canary in the metaphorical coalmine, here you go: Widespread AI adoption has led to a relative decline in employment for early-career workers in highly exposed roles. It doesn’t mean “no jobs,” however. It means job designs must evolve to AI-augmented work, not AI-replaced tasks.
What This Means for ECLARO Clients: “Businesses cannot afford to ignore that canary, and they should be taking steps right now to make sure they are prepared,” says Paul Sheridan. “For example, organizations can redesign entry-level pathways with apprenticeship-style learning, explore hybrid roles that blend AI fluency with human judgment, establish structured coaching layers that ensure junior talent contributes safely and meaningfully. It’s not a quick fix, it’s a strategic plan. We’ll help you map career ladders that keep early-career talent engaged and productive.”
The Jevons Paradox: AI Makes Hiring Faster, So Hiring Volume Doesn’t Drop
Since we’ve introduced the notion of coalmines, let’s take a look at what coal actually has to do with where AI is headed in the world of hiring talent. Back in 1865, British economist and logician William Stanley Jevons observed that as coal-powered engines became more efficient in England, coal consumption didn’t decrease, it actually increased. The improved efficiency made coal cheaper and more useful, which led to broader adoption and higher overall use.
And there we have the Jevons Paradox: When technology makes something more efficient, we often end up using more of it, not less. As computers became faster and cheaper, for example, society didn’t cut back on computing. We used it everywhere. The same thing happens with energy, data or AI tools. Efficiency lowers the barrier, which increases demand.
Automation reduces the cost per hire, which paradoxically increases hiring activity—more pilots, more role changes and more rapid scaling. The practical JTBD for organizations embracing AI to improve efficiency: Help us move fast without sacrificing quality.
What This Means for ECLARO Clients: “Productivity gains don’t eliminate work,” Tom Sheridan says, “they change how work gets done. The real advantage comes from preparing people and teams to use new efficiencies wisely, not assuming efficiency alone will reduce effort. ECLARO serves as a stabilizing force in a high-velocity environment, providing validated capability, governance and confidence that each hire is a step toward sustainable performance.”
READ MORE ABOUT HOW "JOBS TO BE DONE" HELPS BUILD TEAMS WITH THE RIGHT PEOPLE
The Staffing Firm Becomes a “Trust and Compliance Layer” for Talent
In the future of hiring, the challenge is not going to be just finding talent—it’s going to be knowing what’s real. That’s why the role of a staffing partner is shifting from simply sourcing people to acting as a critical trust and compliance layer. Clients will need to know exactly how and why a candidate was selected, and assessments based on real-world tasks won’t be a luxury anymore, but a necessity.
What This Means for ECLARO Clients: “Trust is the new product,” says Paul Sheridan. “Our value is in providing a transparent, human-verified process that cuts through the AI noise. We focus on repeatable evaluations and real-world proof of capability, giving clients the confidence that every hire aligns perfectly with their standards. In the next 5 to 10 years, leaders won’t be measured solely by who they can find. They’ll be measured by what they can prove about those candidates—and how reliably those people perform.
“The Stanford/SIEPR research offers a north star when it comes to the future of finding the Right People in an AI world,” he continues. “Use signal-driven, evidence-based approaches to workforce design, and look at staffing partners not as candidate brokers but as experienced, trusted talent operations accelerators who understand AI isn’t here to replace humans in the workforce, but that it’s here to accelerate human potential.”